Winline Dota 2 Champions League Season 15 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Sorry
Banesignature
BLACKARXANGEL · 47 games
Skywrath Mage
y0nd · 39 games
Tinysignature
Worick · 35 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Worick · 32 games
Hoodwink
y0nd · 30 games
Marsoften banned
LastHero- · 26 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Worick · 25 games
Enchantressoften banned
BLACKARXANGEL · 21 game
Zorka Gaming
Tinysignature
OneJey · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Arti_Shock · 5 games
Linaoften banned
Miyaoo · 5 games
Sven
dizzying · 4 games
Omniknightoften banned
Arti_Shock · 3 games
Primal Beastoften banned
klassnokruto · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 2 games
Enchantressoften banned
OneJey · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
640 picks · 498 bans
Marci
470 picks · 685 bans
Dawnbreaker
412 picks · 578 bans
Puck
407 picks · 856 bans
Winter Wyvern
330 picks · 407 bans
Death Prophet
297 picks · 479 bans
Zeus
278 picks · 376 bans
Enchantress
266 picks · 319 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength55% Zorka Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% No Sorry
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:13
No Sorry 53%Zorka Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on No Sorry — the game was taken by No Sorry in 23:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ViperCloud
Ursadizzying
Faceless VoidKami
LinaMiyaoo
Storm SpiritWorick
Venomancerklassnokruto
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
ClockwerkOneJey
Marciy0nd
UndyingArti_Shock
Game 2prediction missed41:39
No Sorry 54%Zorka Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 54:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautKami
Terrorbladedizzying
DoomCloud
BatriderMiyaoo
Queen of PainWorick
Undyingklassnokruto
Tinyy0nd
EarthshakerOneJey
Crystal MaidenBLACKARXANGEL
DisruptorArti_Shock
Game 3prediction missed27:46
No Sorry 54%Zorka Gaming 46%
The model gave 54% on No Sorry — the game was taken by Zorka Gaming in 49:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LycanCloud
Bristlebackdizzying
Shadow FiendKami
BatriderMiyaoo
Storm SpiritWorick
Pangolierklassnokruto
EnchantressBLACKARXANGEL
Crystal MaidenOneJey
Tinyy0nd
UndyingArti_Shock
Model check result
Model favoriteNo Sorry · 57%
Series resultZorka Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3