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CIS Battle · BO3
result vs prediction
Odiumloss 0:2
series probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Runa Teamwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Odium

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
lupsione · 3 games
0%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Rain · 2 games
50%
Sven
Svenoften banned
selfhate · 2 games
0%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tiny
Rain · 2 games
50%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Actor · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Actor · 1 game
0%

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
44%
Tiny
Tiny
nicky`cool · 31 game
58%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 22 games
45%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 22 games
59%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
67%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
56%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
61%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
72%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 591 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
397 picks · 386 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
382 picks · 412 bans
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
356 picks · 211 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
345 picks · 506 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
333 picks · 720 bans
46%
Puck
Puck
324 picks · 826 bans
54%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 637 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:45
Odium 30%Runa Team 70%
The model gave 70% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 29:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusaselfhate
54% · 127 games49% · 141 game
Abaddonnesfeer
Abaddon
Dark Seer
Dark SeerActor
52% · 161 game50% · 218 games
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Ember Spirit
Batrider
Batriderlupsione
49% · 238 games50% · 110 games
MarciAlberkaaa
Marci
Pugna
PugnaLil
53% · 118 games44% · 74 games
Snapfirequeezy
Snapfire
46% · 101 game
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct11:36
Odium 29%Runa Team 71%
The model gave 71% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
BeastmasterActor
53% · 227 games53% · 58 games
Weavernesfeer
Weaver
Lifestealer
Lifestealerselfhate
50% · 67 games44% · 60 games
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Keeper of the Light
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLil
51% · 79 games56% · 109 games
AbaddonAlberkaaa
Abaddon
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonlupsione
44% · 149 games50% · 244 games
Batriderqueezy
Batrider
47% · 51 game
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 84%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2