CIS Battle · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
16%84%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Odium
Dark Willow
lupsione · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Rain · 2 games
Svenoften banned
selfhate · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
selfhate · 2 games
Tiny
Rain · 2 games
Undyingoften banned
Actor · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
selfhate · 1 game
Axeoften banned
Actor · 1 game
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 32 games
Tiny
nicky`cool · 31 game
Dark Willow
queezy · 22 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
nicky`cool · 22 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 18 games
Naga Sirenoften banned
Hduo · 18 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 18 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 18 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
586 picks · 591 bans
Tiny
397 picks · 386 bans
Tusk
382 picks · 412 bans
Dark Willow
356 picks · 211 bans
Pangolier
345 picks · 506 bans
Terrorblade
333 picks · 720 bans
Puck
324 picks · 826 bans
Nature's Prophet
320 picks · 637 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:45
Odium 30%Runa Team 70%
The model gave 70% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 29:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusaselfhate
Abaddonnesfeer
Dark SeerActor
Ember Spiritnicky`cool
Batriderlupsione
MarciAlberkaaa
PugnaLil
Snapfirequeezy
46% · 101 game
DisruptorHduo
Game 2prediction correct11:36
Odium 29%Runa Team 71%
The model gave 71% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 25:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterActor
Weavernesfeer
Lifestealerselfhate
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Ogre MagiLil
AbaddonAlberkaaa
Shadow Demonlupsione
Batriderqueezy
47% · 51 game
DisruptorHduo
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 84%
Series resultRuna Team 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2