CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
OG
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 21 game
Jakiro
Kidaro · 18 games
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 14 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 14 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
1w Team
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 20 games
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 16 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Munkushi~ · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
501 picks · 544 bans
Shadow Shaman
462 picks · 503 bans
Ringmaster
425 picks · 221 bans
Tusk
384 picks · 373 bans
Jakiro
381 picks · 271 bans
Terrorblade
367 picks · 807 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 533 bans
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 520 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total61% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:19
OG 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by OG in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaShad
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Void SpiritStormstormer
PuckSquad1x
AxeMikSa`
MarsSSS
PugnaLelis
Jakiroswedenstrong
RubickDaze
Tuskkasane
Game 2prediction missed46:41
OG 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by OG in 1:07:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UndyingMikSa`
MorphlingMunkushi~
LifestealerShad
Queen of PainSquad1x
Ember SpiritStormstormer
AxeSSS
JakiroLelis
Warlockkasane
MarciDaze
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 61%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2