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CCT Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
1w Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Nine · 21 game
38%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Kidaro · 18 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muerta
Daze · 15 games
27%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Stormstormer · 14 games
36%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 14 games
50%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
23savage · 11 games
36%

1w Team

Disruptor
Disruptor
Fishman · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Munkushi~ · 20 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 19 games
47%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Cloud · 18 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
SSS · 16 games
56%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Munkushi~ · 16 games
44%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
SSS · 13 games
77%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Munkushi~ · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
501 picks · 544 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
462 picks · 503 bans
56%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
425 picks · 221 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
384 picks · 373 bans
47%
Jakiro
Jakiro
381 picks · 271 bans
46%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
367 picks · 807 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
354 picks · 533 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
349 picks · 520 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength59% 1w Team
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total61% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:19
OG 44%1w Team 56%
The model gave 56% on 1w Team — the game was taken by OG in 35:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShad
51% · 207 games57% · 108 games
Templar AssassinMunkushi~
Templar Assassin
Void Spirit
Void SpiritStormstormer
45% · 121 game49% · 168 games
PuckSquad1x
Puck
Axe
AxeMikSa`
47% · 68 games52% · 91 game
MarsSSS
Mars
Pugna
PugnaLelis
48% · 137 games50% · 181 game
Jakiroswedenstrong
Jakiro
Rubick
RubickDaze
54% · 211 games46% · 196 games
Tuskkasane
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed46:41
OG 42%1w Team 58%
The model gave 58% on 1w Team — the game was taken by OG in 1:07:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Undying
UndyingMikSa`
54% · 78 games46% · 212 games
MorphlingMunkushi~
Morphling
Lifestealer
LifestealerShad
60% · 83 games44% · 104 games
Queen of PainSquad1x
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStormstormer
47% · 227 games51% · 66 games
AxeSSS
Axe
Jakiro
JakiroLelis
47% · 274 games47% · 193 games
Warlockkasane
Warlock
Marci
MarciDaze
50% · 118 games55% · 205 games
Shadow Shamanswedenstrong
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 61%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2