RES Regional Series: EU #3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
One Move
Pangolieroften banned
SSS · 13 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SSS · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 10 games
Gyrocoptersignature
WoE · 10 games
Hoodwink
queezy · 10 games
Crystal Maiden
Rein · 9 games
Leshracoften banned
xn丶e · 9 games
Marsoften banned
SSS · 9 games
Nemiga Gaming
Crystal Maiden
aik · 26 games
Rubick
queezy · 26 games
Batrideroften banned
jesv · 25 games
Tinyoften banned
queezy · 23 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Lukas · 21 game
Pangoliersignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
Timbersawoften banned
nicky`cool · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
388 picks · 738 bans
Hoodwink
344 picks · 298 bans
Rubick
340 picks · 227 bans
Weaver
337 picks · 669 bans
Clockwerk
317 picks · 470 bans
Gyrocopter
310 picks · 379 bans
Pangolier
306 picks · 532 bans
Dark Willow
286 picks · 344 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total58% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:14
One Move 48%Nemiga Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by One Move in 26:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterWoE
SvenLowskill
Void SpiritSquad1x
BeastmasterMikSa`
Legion CommanderSSS
Slardarnicky`cool
ClockwerkRein
Phoenixforcemajor
55% · 39 games
Jakirojesv
Game 2prediction missed46:27
One Move 45%Nemiga Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by One Move in 38:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WindrangerWoE
Troll WarlordLowskill
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Sand Kingnicky`cool
MarsSSS
EnigmaMikSa`
RubickRein
Nyx Assassinjesv
39% · 58 games
Jakiroforcemajor
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 58%
Series resultOne Move 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2