Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Китай. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Piggy Killerwin 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Brightloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Piggy Killer
Tinysignature
Frisk · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
Srf · 6 games
Mirana
Frisk · 5 games
Disruptor
Victoria · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Victoria · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
Slarkoften banned
flyfly · 4 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 4 games
Team Bright
Leshracsignature
phoenix · 6 games
Clockwerk
Undyne_ · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 4 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Timbersawoften banned
Irving · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Irving · 3 games
Lich
Undyne_ · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
phoenix · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
759 picks · 605 bans
Disruptor
550 picks · 464 bans
Beastmaster
422 picks · 998 bans
Tiny
417 picks · 380 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 936 bans
Doom
391 picks · 589 bans
Undying
391 picks · 602 bans
Nature's Prophet
389 picks · 666 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 71%
Hero pool strength59% Piggy Killer
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Piggy Killer
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:16
Piggy Killer 54%Team Bright 46%
The model gave 54% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 33:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenflyfly
Void Spiritphoenix
MagnusSrf
BeastmasterIrving
Storm SpiritXm
LichUndyne_
TechiesFrisk
Disruptormercy
Game 2prediction correct41:19
Piggy Killer 55%Team Bright 45%
The model gave 55% on Piggy Killer — the game was taken by Piggy Killer in 44:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Svenflyfly
Void Spiritphoenix
BatriderSrf
Legion CommanderIrving
Queen of PainXm
PudgeUndyne_
Techiesmercy
EarthshakerFrisk
Model check result
Model favoritePiggy Killer · 59%
Series resultPiggy Killer 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2