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BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Pipsqueak+4

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ekki · 11 games
45%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painoften banned
Copy · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 7 games
57%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Zayac · 7 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenix
SoNNeikO · 6 games
17%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
ряф^^ · 6 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
aik · 5 games
20%

Level UP

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 21 game
62%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 21 game
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 19 games
68%
Techies
Techiessignature
Htrd · 19 games
84%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 17 games
53%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 15 games
87%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 15 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
493 picks · 332 bans
51%
Bane
Bane
346 picks · 469 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 512 bans
57%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
331 picks · 492 bans
52%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
309 picks · 644 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
279 picks · 305 bans
48%
Windranger
Windranger
265 picks · 188 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
262 picks · 280 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:34
Pipsqueak+4 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendrincyq
51% · 219 games45% · 124 games
LunaWoE
Luna
Underlord
UnderlordMalik
50% · 216 games52% · 280 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
58% · 303 games50% · 212 games
LargoBb3px
Largo
Undying
Undyingaik
48% · 126 games46% · 92 games
DazzleHtrd
Dazzle
Mirana
MiranaEkki
55% · 106 games42% · 262 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed42:27
Pipsqueak+4 44%Level UP 56%
The model gave 56% on Level UP — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 45:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Kezrincyq
49% · 283 games50% · 12 games
SpectreWoE
Spectre
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
41% · 139 games52% · 300 games
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
Centaur Warrunner
Pangolier
PangolierCopy
45% · 413 games53% · 319 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressEkki
47% · 219 games55% · 513 games
Hoodwinkqueezy
Hoodwink
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernaik
50% · 152 games54% · 62 games
DazzleHtrd
Dazzle
Game 3prediction correct64:56
Pipsqueak+4 46%Level UP 54%
The model gave 54% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:23:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largo
LargoMalik
54% · 181 game46% · 507 games
PangolierAinkrad
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritCopy
57% · 349 games43% · 130 games
SvenWoE
Sven
Tiny
Tinyrincyq
50% · 311 games49% · 340 games
TidehunterBb3px
Tidehunter
Hoodwink
HoodwinkEkki
55% · 514 games43% · 344 games
Dark Willowqueezy
Dark Willow
Ringmaster
Ringmasteraik
55% · 199 games49% · 233 games
UndyingHtrd
Undying
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 56%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3