BLAST Slam VIII. Закрытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Pipsqueak+4
Hoodwink
Ekki · 11 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Copy · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
DarkLord^ · 7 games
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 7 games
Tusksignature
Zayac · 7 games
Phoenix
SoNNeikO · 6 games
Sand Kingoften banned
ряф^^ · 6 games
Batrideroften banned
aik · 5 games
Level UP
Hoodwinksignature
queezy · 21 game
Windranger
queezy · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 19 games
Techiessignature
Htrd · 19 games
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 17 games
Undyingoften banned
Htrd · 16 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Ainkrad · 15 games
Tidehuntersignature
Bb3px · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
493 picks · 332 bans
Bane
346 picks · 469 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 512 bans
Clockwerk
331 picks · 492 bans
Shadow Fiend
309 picks · 644 bans
Tiny
279 picks · 305 bans
Windranger
265 picks · 188 bans
Centaur Warrunner
262 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 67%
Hero pool strength61% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:34
Pipsqueak+4 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 34:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiendrincyq
LunaWoE
UnderlordMalik
PangolierAinkrad
Ember SpiritCopy
LargoBb3px
Undyingaik
DazzleHtrd
MiranaEkki
Dark Willowqueezy
Game 2prediction missed42:27
Pipsqueak+4 44%Level UP 56%
The model gave 56% on Level UP — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 45:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezrincyq
SpectreWoE
Dark SeerMalik
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
PangolierCopy
Ember SpiritAinkrad
EnchantressEkki
Hoodwinkqueezy
Winter Wyvernaik
DazzleHtrd
Game 3prediction correct64:56
Pipsqueak+4 46%Level UP 54%
The model gave 54% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 1:23:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LargoMalik
PangolierAinkrad
Ember SpiritCopy
SvenWoE
Tinyrincyq
TidehunterBb3px
HoodwinkEkki
Dark Willowqueezy
Ringmasteraik
UndyingHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 56%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3