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PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Power Rangerswin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Power Rangers

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 19 games
53%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
73%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 14 games
79%
Luna
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 14 games
71%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
58%
Razor
Razorsignature
nesfeer · 11 games
82%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 11 games
73%

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 57 games
61%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
49%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 38 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 32 games
53%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
591 picks · 815 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
529 picks · 549 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
426 picks · 395 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
426 picks · 293 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1018 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 656 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
369 picks · 584 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 518 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:41
Power Rangers 61%Rune Eaters 39%
The model gave 61% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 53:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunanesfeer
43% · 93 games44% · 210 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Largo
LargoAlberkaaa
49% · 87 games51% · 229 games
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Shadow Fiend
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
54% · 122 games46% · 128 games
BrewmasterAnkou
Brewmaster
Jakiro
JakiroHduo
49% · 554 games49% · 313 games
DisruptorKidaro
Disruptor
Hoodwink
HoodwinkImmersion
56% · 367 games58% · 343 games
Shadow Demonani-san
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct49:25
Power Rangers 60%Rune Eaters 40%
The model gave 60% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
Keznesfeer
56% · 107 games46% · 344 games
Beastmasteryowaai
Beastmaster
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
52% · 133 games43% · 278 games
Queen of PainEthereal
Queen of Pain
Mars
MarsAlberkaaa
49% · 429 games58% · 288 games
BatriderAnkou
Batrider
Warlock
WarlockHduo
51% · 542 games44% · 530 games
Tinyani-san
Tiny
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanImmersion
53% · 403 games48% · 174 games
PugnaKidaro
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 66%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2