PREMIER SERIES: Play-In · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Power Rangers
Shadow Demonoften banned
Immersion · 19 games
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Alberkaaa · 14 games
Lunasignature
nesfeer · 14 games
Phoenixsignature
Immersion · 14 games
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 12 games
Razorsignature
nesfeer · 11 games
Templar Assassinsignature
nesfeer · 11 games
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 57 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 50 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 45 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 38 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 32 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
591 picks · 815 bans
Tiny
529 picks · 549 bans
Tusk
426 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
426 picks · 293 bans
Shadow Demon
388 picks · 1018 bans
Ember Spirit
384 picks · 656 bans
Mars
369 picks · 584 bans
Centaur Warrunner
349 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total66% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:41
Power Rangers 61%Rune Eaters 39%
The model gave 61% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 53:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lunanesfeer
Queen of PainEthereal
LargoAlberkaaa
Shadow Fiendyowaai
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
BrewmasterAnkou
JakiroHduo
DisruptorKidaro
HoodwinkImmersion
Shadow Demonani-san
Game 2prediction correct49:25
Power Rangers 60%Rune Eaters 40%
The model gave 60% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Keznesfeer
Beastmasteryowaai
Keeper of the Lightnicky`cool
Queen of PainEthereal
MarsAlberkaaa
BatriderAnkou
WarlockHduo
Tinyani-san
Shadow ShamanImmersion
PugnaKidaro
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 66%
Series resultPower Rangers 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2