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Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
9Pandasloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 42 games
64%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 28 games
82%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
63%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 24 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
57%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 23 games
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 22 games
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
No!ob · 22 games
59%

9Pandas

Techies
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 48 games
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 43 games
47%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 36 games
61%
Doom
Doomsignature
MieRo · 35 games
74%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Solo · 33 games
73%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 32 games
66%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 29 games
69%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
48%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
502 picks · 329 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
452 picks · 978 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
404 picks · 932 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 858 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
382 picks · 1011 bans
56%
Pugna
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:25
PSG Quest 58%9Pandas 42%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautTA2000
53% · 79 games50% · 72 games
Drow RangerRAMZES666
Drow Ranger
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMalik
51% · 245 games43% · 215 games
Snapfirekiyotaka
Snapfire
Puck
PuckNo!ob
51% · 186 games49% · 171 game
DoomMieRo
Doom
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
55% · 142 games48% · 224 games
BatriderAntares
Batrider
Lion
LionOmaR
54% · 58 games45% · 28 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed32:48
PSG Quest 57%9Pandas 43%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 1:10:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
50% · 162 games50% · 242 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
49% · 265 games55% · 141 game
LycanMieRo
Lycan
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMalik
60% · 66 games55% · 141 game
AlchemistRAMZES666
Alchemist
Techies
TechiesOmaR
46% · 213 games45% · 208 games
Skywrath MageAntares
Skywrath Mage
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
42% · 73 games52% · 47 games
Elder TitanSolo
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2