Riyadh Masters 2023 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PSG Quest
Rubicksignature
OmaR · 42 games
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 28 games
Clockwerksignature
Kaori · 27 games
Techiessignature
OmaR · 24 games
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 23 games
Silenceroften banned
Kaori · 23 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 22 games
Snapfire
No!ob · 22 games
9Pandas
Techiesoften banned
Antares · 48 games
Rubick
Antares · 43 games
Skywrath Magesignature
Antares · 36 games
Doomsignature
MieRo · 35 games
Undyingsignature
Solo · 33 games
Enigmasignature
MieRo · 32 games
Storm Spiritsignature
kiyotaka · 29 games
Beastmasteroften banned
MieRo · 25 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
639 picks · 691 bans
Rubick
502 picks · 329 bans
Doom
452 picks · 978 bans
Batrider
404 picks · 932 bans
Ember Spirit
401 picks · 858 bans
Void Spirit
393 picks · 353 bans
Beastmaster
382 picks · 1011 bans
Pugna
380 picks · 448 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 45%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:25
PSG Quest 58%9Pandas 42%
The model gave 58% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 36:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautTA2000
Drow RangerRAMZES666
Primal BeastMalik
Snapfirekiyotaka
PuckNo!ob
DoomMieRo
Shadow DemonKaori
BatriderAntares
LionOmaR
Elder TitanSolo
Game 2prediction missed32:48
PSG Quest 57%9Pandas 43%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by 9Pandas in 1:10:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTA2000
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
TinyNo!ob
LycanMieRo
Dark SeerMalik
AlchemistRAMZES666
TechiesOmaR
Skywrath MageAntares
Shadow DemonKaori
Elder TitanSolo
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 61%
Accuracy by game1 of 2