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BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 2:0
series probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Pipsqueak+4loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
61%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
70%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 36 games
75%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 36 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
69%
Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
42%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
47%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 30 games
70%

Pipsqueak+4

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 16 games
75%
Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 16 games
50%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 13 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
50%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Kidaro · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
472 picks · 242 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
463 picks · 448 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
355 picks · 952 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
322 picks · 369 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
304 picks · 147 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
289 picks · 469 bans
56%
Tusk
Tusk
288 picks · 221 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
287 picks · 667 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
Runa Team 66%Pipsqueak+4 34%
The model gave 66% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidnesfeer
54% · 61 game51% · 142 games
Shadow Fiendxn丶e
Shadow Fiend
Slardar
SlardarAlberkaaa
48% · 123 games46% · 149 games
MarciNande
Marci
Earthshaker
Earthshakernicky`cool
54% · 184 games57% · 232 games
BristlebackPalantimos
Bristleback
Warlock
WarlockHduo
51% · 292 games46% · 218 games
JakiroKidaro
Jakiro
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkqueezy
46% · 228 games48% · 147 games
Shadow DemonKaori
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction correct38:12
Runa Team 64%Pipsqueak+4 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightnesfeer
51% · 356 games51% · 234 games
MedusaNande
Medusa
Tiny
Tinynicky`cool
50% · 455 games48% · 385 games
Storm Spiritxn丶e
Storm Spirit
Marci
MarciAlberkaaa
44% · 227 games45% · 261 game
DawnbreakerPalantimos
Dawnbreaker
Snapfire
Snapfirequeezy
47% · 217 games60% · 142 games
ChenKidaro
Chen
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionHduo
59% · 174 games47% · 407 games
TuskKaori
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 75%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2