BLAST Slam V. Открытые отборочные · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
75%25%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 38 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 37 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 36 games
Disruptorsignature
Hduo · 36 games
Timbersawsignature
nicky`cool · 36 games
Windranger
queezy · 33 games
Dark Willow
queezy · 32 games
Snapfiresignature
queezy · 30 games
Pipsqueak+4
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 16 games
Warlock
Kidaro · 16 games
Undyingsignature
Palantimos · 13 games
Phoenix
Kaori · 12 games
Silenceroften banned
Kidaro · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Kaori · 10 games
Dragon Knight
xn丶e · 10 games
Enchantresssignature
Kidaro · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
472 picks · 242 bans
Disruptor
463 picks · 448 bans
Puck
355 picks · 952 bans
Pugna
322 picks · 369 bans
Warlock
304 picks · 147 bans
Earthshaker
289 picks · 469 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 221 bans
Nature's Prophet
287 picks · 667 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 58%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:12
Runa Team 66%Pipsqueak+4 34%
The model gave 66% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 31:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Voidnesfeer
Shadow Fiendxn丶e
SlardarAlberkaaa
MarciNande
Earthshakernicky`cool
BristlebackPalantimos
WarlockHduo
JakiroKidaro
Hoodwinkqueezy
Shadow DemonKaori
Game 2prediction correct38:12
Runa Team 64%Pipsqueak+4 36%
The model gave 64% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knightnesfeer
MedusaNande
Tinynicky`cool
Storm Spiritxn丶e
MarciAlberkaaa
DawnbreakerPalantimos
Snapfirequeezy
ChenKidaro
Ancient ApparitionHduo
TuskKaori
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 75%
Series resultRuna Team 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2