CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO5
result vs predictionseries probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 3:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Runa Team
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 12 games
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 12 games
Zero Tenacity
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 27 games
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 26 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 25 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
565 picks · 636 bans
Ringmaster
490 picks · 248 bans
Jakiro
464 picks · 424 bans
Terrorblade
399 picks · 854 bans
Shadow Shaman
381 picks · 435 bans
Storm Spirit
378 picks · 564 bans
Tusk
374 picks · 327 bans
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 831 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:30
Runa Team 55%Zero Tenacity 45%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaShigetsu
PuckMirage
Timbersawnicky`cool
Monkey KingNande
AxeAlberkaaa
BeastmasterNefrit
Naga SirenHduo
RubickPablo
Shadow Shamanqueezy
SilencerLeBronDota
Game 2prediction correct35:18
Runa Team 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterShigetsu
OmniknightNande
Pucknicky`cool
Void SpiritMirage
KunkkaAlberkaaa
BeastmasterNefrit
Dark Willowqueezy
RubickPablo
Naga SirenHduo
BatriderLeBronDota
Game 3prediction correct24:17
Runa Team 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeShigetsu
LinaNande
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
PuckMirage
Timbersawnicky`cool
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
DazzleHduo
WindrangerPablo
Shadow Shamanqueezy
Naga SirenLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 54%
Series resultRuna Team 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3