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CCT Season 2 Series 1 · BO5
result vs prediction
Runa Teamwin 3:0
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Runa Team

Windranger
Windranger
queezy · 31 game
45%
Tiny
Tinysignature
nicky`cool · 27 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Hduo · 17 games
47%
Batrider
Batridersignature
queezy · 17 games
71%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
nicky`cool · 15 games
67%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
64%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Alberkaaa · 12 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Hduo · 12 games
67%

Zero Tenacity

Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 29 games
62%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
Nefrit · 27 games
78%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
41%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 26 games
31%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
LeBronDota · 26 games
31%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Retsu · 25 games
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Retsu · 24 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
565 picks · 636 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
490 picks · 248 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
464 picks · 424 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
399 picks · 854 bans
47%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
381 picks · 435 bans
57%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
378 picks · 564 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
374 picks · 327 bans
49%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
356 picks · 831 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Runa Team
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total54% Runa Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:30
Runa Team 55%Zero Tenacity 45%
The model gave 55% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 46:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShigetsu
50% · 167 games50% · 133 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
49% · 174 games53% · 130 games
Monkey KingNande
Monkey King
Axe
AxeAlberkaaa
48% · 30 games47% · 197 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
55% · 114 games45% · 121 game
RubickPablo
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanqueezy
54% · 171 game46% · 75 games
SilencerLeBronDota
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct35:18
Runa Team 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 35:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShigetsu
52% · 296 games50% · 74 games
OmniknightNande
Omniknight
Puck
Pucknicky`cool
51% · 261 game48% · 122 games
Void SpiritMirage
Void Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaAlberkaaa
47% · 135 games48% · 362 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark Willowqueezy
48% · 281 game49% · 160 games
RubickPablo
Rubick
Naga Siren
Naga SirenHduo
58% · 116 games48% · 371 game
BatriderLeBronDota
Batrider
Game 3prediction correct24:17
Runa Team 53%Zero Tenacity 47%
The model gave 53% on Runa Team — the game was taken by Runa Team in 36:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeShigetsu
46% · 224 games42% · 137 games
LinaNande
Lina
Beastmaster
BeastmasterAlberkaaa
50% · 245 games53% · 216 games
PuckMirage
Puck
Timbersaw
Timbersawnicky`cool
52% · 136 games45% · 159 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Dazzle
DazzleHduo
56% · 23 games48% · 167 games
WindrangerPablo
Windranger
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanqueezy
55% · 150 games57% · 99 games
Naga SirenLeBronDota
Naga Siren
Model check result
Model favoriteRuna Team · 54%
Series resultRuna Team 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3