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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
hAze clanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 54 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 48 games
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 43 games
51%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 34 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 30 games
53%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 29 games
59%

hAze clan

Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 2 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
hAze · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
SoNNeikO · 1 game
0%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
hAze · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
hAze · 1 game
100%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shigetsu · 1 game
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
not me · 1 game
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
548 picks · 900 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
524 picks · 398 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 650 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 604 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 852 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 597 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 581 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
354 picks · 498 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:26
Rune Eaters 54%hAze clan 46%
The model gave 54% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by hAze clan in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeyowaai
49% · 352 games48% · 187 games
Phantom AssassinTA2000
Phantom Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerAnkou
52% · 198 games50% · 221 game
TidehunterMalik
Tidehunter
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightEthereal
47% · 391 game49% · 465 games
TinyhAze
Tiny
Dazzle
Dazzlemonodrama
50% · 142 games46% · 245 games
Dark Willownot me
Dark Willow
Ringmaster
Ringmasterani-san
52% · 315 games57% · 280 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Shadow Demon
Game 2prediction missed16:36
Rune Eaters 53%hAze clan 47%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by hAze clan in 29:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealeryowaai
44% · 135 games60% · 128 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Puck
PuckEthereal
45% · 389 games50% · 164 games
LeshrachAze
Leshrac
Slardar
SlardarAnkou
53% · 249 games48% · 313 games
MarsMalik
Mars
Muerta
Muertaani-san
49% · 227 games49% · 198 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonmonodrama
54% · 276 games49% · 473 games
Tusknot me
Tusk
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 56%
Series resulthAze clan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2