PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HChAze clanwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 54 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 48 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 43 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 34 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 30 games
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 29 games
hAze clan
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
hAze · 1 game
Dazzle
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Dragon Knightoften banned
hAze · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
hAze · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Shigetsu · 1 game
Hoodwink
not me · 1 game
Jakirooften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
548 picks · 900 bans
Tusk
524 picks · 398 bans
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 650 bans
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 604 bans
Shadow Demon
405 picks · 852 bans
Ember Spirit
370 picks · 597 bans
Gyrocopter
354 picks · 581 bans
Mars
354 picks · 498 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 56%
Hero pool strength53% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:26
Rune Eaters 54%hAze clan 46%
The model gave 54% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by hAze clan in 36:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
Phantom AssassinTA2000
DawnbreakerAnkou
TidehunterMalik
Dragon KnightEthereal
TinyhAze
Dazzlemonodrama
Dark Willownot me
Ringmasterani-san
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Game 2prediction missed16:36
Rune Eaters 53%hAze clan 47%
The model gave 53% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by hAze clan in 29:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealeryowaai
Naga SirenTA2000
PuckEthereal
LeshrachAze
SlardarAnkou
MarsMalik
Muertaani-san
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Shadow Demonmonodrama
Tusknot me
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 56%
Series resulthAze clan 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2