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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Rune Eatersloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Lynxwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Rune Eaters

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 55 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 49 games
49%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 44 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 34 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
44%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 31 game
52%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
81%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
57%

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
62%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
53%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 14 games
57%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
36%
Mars
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
50%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 12 games
25%
Axe
Axeoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
593 picks · 929 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 417 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
493 picks · 640 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 654 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 936 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 650 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
384 picks · 530 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
377 picks · 231 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
Rune Eaters 49%Team Lynx 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
Ursayowaai
52% · 270 games50% · 165 games
Muerta7jesu
Muerta
Leshrac
LeshracEthereal
51% · 200 games54% · 86 games
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
Keeper of the Light
Marci
MarciAnkou
53% · 203 games53% · 151 game
Primal BeastVladikTheHtiviy
Primal Beast
Dark Willow
Dark Willowani-san
45% · 249 games44% · 430 games
Tuskkreker
Tusk
Dazzle
Dazzlemonodrama
44% · 115 games54% · 205 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed23:35
Rune Eaters 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteryowaai
48% · 348 games47% · 107 games
Weaver7jesu
Weaver
Puck
PuckEthereal
53% · 380 games52% · 361 game
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
Centaur Warrunner
Marci
MarciAnkou
54% · 207 games52% · 152 games
Primal Beastmellojul
Primal Beast
Phoenix
Phoenixmonodrama
41% · 180 games51% · 453 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Batrider
Batriderani-san
52% · 264 games48% · 306 games
Shadow DemonQBFY
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 51%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2