European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 55 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 49 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 44 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 34 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 34 games
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 31 game
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 31 game
Slardaroften banned
Ankou · 30 games
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 15 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
7jesu · 14 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Marsoften banned
fortniteMan · 12 games
Sand King
mellojul · 12 games
Axeoften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 11 games
Abaddonoften banned
7jesu · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
593 picks · 929 bans
Tusk
540 picks · 417 bans
Centaur Warrunner
493 picks · 640 bans
Dragon Knight
491 picks · 654 bans
Shadow Demon
434 picks · 936 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 650 bans
Mars
384 picks · 530 bans
Warlock
377 picks · 231 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 52%
Hero pool strength50% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:37
Rune Eaters 49%Team Lynx 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 39:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursayowaai
Muerta7jesu
LeshracEthereal
Keeper of the Lightmellojul
MarciAnkou
Primal BeastVladikTheHtiviy
Dark Willowani-san
Tuskkreker
Dazzlemonodrama
RingmasterQBFY
Game 2prediction missed23:35
Rune Eaters 51%Team Lynx 49%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 37:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopteryowaai
Weaver7jesu
PuckEthereal
Centaur WarrunnerVladikTheHtiviy
MarciAnkou
Primal Beastmellojul
Phoenixmonodrama
Jakirokreker
Batriderani-san
Shadow DemonQBFY
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 51%
Series resultTeam Lynx 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 2