The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Shopify Rebellion
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 15 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
Ringmaster
Hellscream · 14 games
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 13 games
Wildcard Gaming
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 23 games
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 15 games
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 14 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
527 picks · 607 bans
Ringmaster
473 picks · 239 bans
Jakiro
461 picks · 434 bans
Terrorblade
371 picks · 785 bans
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 516 bans
Ancient Apparition
346 picks · 794 bans
Tusk
338 picks · 299 bans
Shadow Shaman
325 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head8 – 0
Model total85% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:48
Shopify Rebellion 71%Wildcard Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 1:14:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritYopaj
LinaYamSun
MuertaTimado
Dark SeerFayde
AxeDavai
PangolierRCY
RubickHellscream
Naga SirenSpeeed
UndyingSkem
TuskBignum
Game 2prediction missed15:17
Shopify Rebellion 69%Wildcard Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerTimado
TerrorbladeYamSun
PuckYopaj
Death ProphetRCY
BrewmasterDavai
Night StalkerFayde
UndyingSkem
ChenSpeeed
Dark WillowHellscream
BaneBignum
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 85%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2