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The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Shopify Rebellionloss 0:2
series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Shopify Rebellion

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 21 game
76%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Timado · 17 games
53%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Timado · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Yopaj · 15 games
73%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Hellscream · 14 games
43%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mangekyou · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Hellscream · 13 games
69%

Wildcard Gaming

Magnus
Magnussignature
Fayde · 24 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
RCY · 23 games
35%
Muerta
Muerta
Bignum · 21 game
48%
Warlock
Warlock
Speeed · 16 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bignum · 15 games
53%
Night Stalker
Night Stalkersignature
Fayde · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
RCY · 14 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
YamSun · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
527 picks · 607 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
473 picks · 239 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
461 picks · 434 bans
49%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
371 picks · 785 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
355 picks · 516 bans
52%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
346 picks · 794 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
338 picks · 299 bans
49%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
325 picks · 359 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)51% vs 44%
Hero pool strength53% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head8 – 0
Model total85% Shopify Rebellion
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:48
Shopify Rebellion 71%Wildcard Gaming 29%
The model gave 71% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 1:14:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
48% · 303 games45% · 117 games
LinaYamSun
Lina
Muerta
MuertaTimado
46% · 329 games55% · 189 games
Dark SeerFayde
Dark Seer
Axe
AxeDavai
59% · 36 games45% · 312 games
PangolierRCY
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickHellscream
48% · 210 games59% · 79 games
Naga SirenSpeeed
Naga Siren
Undying
UndyingSkem
56% · 66 games46% · 247 games
TuskBignum
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed15:17
Shopify Rebellion 69%Wildcard Gaming 31%
The model gave 69% on Shopify Rebellion — the game was taken by Wildcard Gaming in 38:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTimado
49% · 23 games43% · 173 games
TerrorbladeYamSun
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckYopaj
44% · 112 games50% · 42 games
Death ProphetRCY
Death Prophet
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDavai
53% · 55 games56% · 58 games
Night StalkerFayde
Night Stalker
Undying
UndyingSkem
56% · 34 games59% · 59 games
ChenSpeeed
Chen
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHellscream
48% · 123 games56% · 15 games
BaneBignum
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteShopify Rebellion · 85%
Series resultWildcard Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2