Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 23 games
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
Bane
Kaori · 14 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 13 games
Disruptor
Kaori · 12 games
Nemiga Gaming
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
320 picks · 448 bans
Bane
276 picks · 209 bans
Monkey King
275 picks · 684 bans
Tidehunter
264 picks · 398 bans
Snapfire
254 picks · 138 bans
Weaver
247 picks · 539 bans
Lion
212 picks · 97 bans
Void Spirit
209 picks · 240 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total52% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:22
Team Empire 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 27:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SnapfireShisui
MedusaKiritych
Kunkkalightless
BatriderAinkrad
MarsGhostik
BeastmasterTheChosenOne
SilencerKaori
Shadow DemonHeaven
Monkey King[T]SA
DisruptorVANSKOR
Game 2prediction missed18:29
Team Empire 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelightless
Chaos KnightKiritych
RubickShisui
BeastmasterAinkrad
Centaur WarrunnerGhostik
MarsTheChosenOne
Shadow Demon[T]SA
PhoenixHeaven
OracleKaori
VisageVANSKOR
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 52%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2