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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 0:2
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ghostik · 23 games
48%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 19 games
63%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 15 games
67%
Bane
Bane
Kaori · 14 games
50%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 14 games
71%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
lightless · 13 games
54%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Kaori · 12 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 18 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
320 picks · 448 bans
50%
Bane
Bane
276 picks · 209 bans
60%
Monkey King
Monkey King
275 picks · 684 bans
59%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
264 picks · 398 bans
45%
Snapfire
Snapfire
254 picks · 138 bans
47%
Weaver
Weaver
247 picks · 539 bans
57%
Lion
Lion
212 picks · 97 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
209 picks · 240 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 31%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total52% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:22
Team Empire 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 27:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireShisui
48% · 156 games46% · 159 games
MedusaKiritych
Medusa
Kunkka
Kunkkalightless
50% · 81 game53% · 128 games
BatriderAinkrad
Batrider
Mars
MarsGhostik
42% · 248 games57% · 165 games
BeastmasterTheChosenOne
Beastmaster
Silencer
SilencerKaori
41% · 67 games62% · 117 games
Shadow DemonHeaven
Shadow Demon
Monkey King
Monkey King[T]SA
51% · 167 games49% · 150 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed18:29
Team Empire 53%Nemiga Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 45:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladelightless
49% · 120 games52% · 27 games
Chaos KnightKiritych
Chaos Knight
Rubick
RubickShisui
47% · 132 games62% · 116 games
BeastmasterAinkrad
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerGhostik
46% · 78 games44% · 264 games
MarsTheChosenOne
Mars
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon[T]SA
56% · 77 games53% · 148 games
PhoenixHeaven
Phoenix
Oracle
OracleKaori
40% · 148 gameslittle data
VisageVANSKOR
Visage
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 52%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2