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DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Falconswin 2:1
series probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Pipsqueak+4loss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
68%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
76%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
74%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 25 games
52%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
75%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
73%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
71%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 20 games
75%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 36 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 29 games
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 25 games
64%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 19 games
53%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
601 picks · 300 bans
52%
Jakiro
Jakiro
569 picks · 465 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
554 picks · 682 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
549 picks · 550 bans
52%
Tusk
Tusk
521 picks · 312 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
498 picks · 750 bans
51%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 549 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Team Falcons 87%Pipsqueak+4 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSkiter
57% · 287 games50% · 211 games
AxePalantimos
Axe
Pangolier
PangolierATF
47% · 290 games47% · 37 games
KezNande
Kez
Sniper
SniperMalr1ne
53% · 46 games43% · 69 games
Earth SpiritCopy
Earth Spirit
Jakiro
JakiroSneyking
48% · 320 games49% · 451 game
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
49% · 166 games52% · 341 game
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed18:27
Team Falcons 85%Pipsqueak+4 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slardar
SlardarATF
53% · 178 games46% · 363 games
TerrorbladeNande
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckMalr1ne
56% · 334 games46% · 222 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Abaddon
AbaddonSkiter
49% · 280 games40% · 67 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSneyking
58% · 204 games42% · 186 games
PugnaKidaro
Pugna
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinCr1t-
63% · 79 games48% · 237 games
Shadow ShamanEkki
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction correct24:6
Team Falcons 85%Pipsqueak+4 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautSkiter
48% · 59 games41% · 96 games
Troll WarlordNande
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
46% · 290 games48% · 79 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerATF
53% · 171 game53% · 251 game
Sand KingCopy
Sand King
Enchantress
EnchantressSneyking
51% · 153 games47% · 325 games
HoodwinkEkki
Hoodwink
Ringmaster
RingmasterCr1t-
59% · 153 games56% · 75 games
LichKidaro
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 97%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3