DreamLeague Season 27 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
97%3%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Falcons
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 37 games
Chensignature
Sneyking · 33 games
Pugnasignature
Sneyking · 27 games
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 25 games
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
Weaversignature
Skiter · 22 games
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
Marssignature
ATF · 20 games
Pipsqueak+4
Warlock
Kidaro · 36 games
Marsoften banned
Nande · 29 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 26 games
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 25 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 24 games
Batridersignature
Ekki · 20 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 19 games
Tusk
Ekki · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
773 picks · 360 bans
Hoodwink
601 picks · 300 bans
Jakiro
569 picks · 465 bans
Dragon Knight
554 picks · 682 bans
Disruptor
549 picks · 550 bans
Tusk
521 picks · 312 bans
Mars
498 picks · 750 bans
Centaur Warrunner
490 picks · 549 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)81% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total97% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:14
Team Falcons 87%Pipsqueak+4 13%
The model gave 87% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightSkiter
AxePalantimos
PangolierATF
KezNande
SniperMalr1ne
Earth SpiritCopy
JakiroSneyking
WarlockKidaro
RingmasterCr1t-
HoodwinkEkki
Game 2prediction missed18:27
Team Falcons 85%Pipsqueak+4 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SlardarATF
TerrorbladeNande
PuckMalr1ne
Storm SpiritCopy
AbaddonSkiter
UnderlordPalantimos
Naga SirenSneyking
PugnaKidaro
Nyx AssassinCr1t-
Shadow ShamanEkki
Game 3prediction correct24:6
Team Falcons 85%Pipsqueak+4 15%
The model gave 85% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 29:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautSkiter
Troll WarlordNande
Dragon KnightMalr1ne
UnderlordPalantimos
Centaur WarrunnerATF
Sand KingCopy
EnchantressSneyking
HoodwinkEkki
RingmasterCr1t-
LichKidaro
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 97%
Series resultTeam Falcons 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3