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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Heroicloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 45 games
58%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
78%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
68%

Heroic

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Thiolicor · 36 games
61%
Tusk
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 23 games
74%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 20 games
45%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
55%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
68%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 19 games
74%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
590 picks · 860 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
508 picks · 538 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
447 picks · 406 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
434 picks · 299 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 668 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 584 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 545 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:30
Team Liquid 69%Heroic 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 55:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaNisha
50% · 49 games50% · 60 games
LunaYuma
Luna
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendmiCKe
51% · 271 game62% · 98 games
ViperTaiLung
Viper
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
49% · 243 games55% · 274 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Tiny
TinyBoxi
45% · 494 games46% · 433 games
TuskThiolicor
Tusk
Bane
BanetOfu
55% · 202 games41% · 394 games
WarlockKJ
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct27:37
Team Liquid 68%Heroic 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:19:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeavermiCKe
44% · 161 game51% · 245 games
UrsaYuma
Ursa
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritNisha
47% · 528 games46% · 327 games
BeastmasterTaiLung
Beastmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackAce
49% · 376 games50% · 304 games
BatriderWisper
Batrider
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectortOfu
60% · 97 games47% · 515 games
JakiroThiolicor
Jakiro
Hoodwink
HoodwinkBoxi
48% · 383 games59% · 154 games
BaneKJ
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2