PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 45 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 26 games
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 25 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
Heroic
Jakirosignature
Thiolicor · 36 games
Tusk
Scofield · 30 games
Shadow Demonsignature
KJ · 23 games
Ursaoften banned
Yuma · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Wisper · 20 games
Enigmaoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
Clockwerksignature
Scofield · 19 games
Gyrocoptersignature
Yuma · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
590 picks · 860 bans
Tiny
508 picks · 538 bans
Tusk
447 picks · 406 bans
Warlock
434 picks · 299 bans
Shadow Demon
401 picks · 1034 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 668 bans
Mars
381 picks · 584 bans
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 545 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 61%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head4 – 3
Model total82% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:30
Team Liquid 69%Heroic 31%
The model gave 69% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 55:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaNisha
LunaYuma
Shadow FiendmiCKe
ViperTaiLung
TidehunterAce
BatriderWisper
TinyBoxi
TuskThiolicor
BanetOfu
WarlockKJ
Game 2prediction correct27:37
Team Liquid 68%Heroic 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 1:19:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeavermiCKe
UrsaYuma
Storm SpiritNisha
BeastmasterTaiLung
BristlebackAce
BatriderWisper
Treant ProtectortOfu
JakiroThiolicor
HoodwinkBoxi
BaneKJ
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 82%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2