PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 43 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
Pucksignature
Nisha · 25 games
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Snapfire
tOfu · 24 games
Vici Gaming
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
Jakirooften banned
y` · 11 games
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 9 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 9 games
Ursaoften banned
lou · 9 games
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 8 games
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
585 picks · 919 bans
Tusk
481 picks · 420 bans
Tiny
472 picks · 510 bans
Warlock
430 picks · 286 bans
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1044 bans
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 574 bans
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 666 bans
Mars
385 picks · 562 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Team Liquid 67%Vici Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazormiCKe
UnderlordFaith_bian
TinyNisha
Outworld DestroyerXm
TidehunterAce
Marcishiro
LargotOfu
HoodwinkpLAnet
Dark WillowBoxi
Jakiroy`
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Team Liquid 68%Vici Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MuertamiCKe
Shadow Fiendshiro
PuckNisha
SlardarXm
LargoAce
BatriderFaith_bian
MarciBoxi
Faceless VoidpLAnet
LiontOfu
Pugnay`
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2