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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 43 games
58%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 28 games
54%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 27 games
78%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 26 games
46%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ace · 25 games
60%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 25 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 24 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
tOfu · 24 games
42%

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 11 games
27%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 9 games
56%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 9 games
78%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 8 games
63%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
585 picks · 919 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
481 picks · 420 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
472 picks · 510 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
430 picks · 286 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
412 picks · 1044 bans
55%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 574 bans
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
386 picks · 666 bans
60%
Mars
Mars
385 picks · 562 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Team Liquid 67%Vici Gaming 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 49:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazormiCKe
49% · 122 games52% · 176 games
UnderlordFaith_bian
Underlord
Tiny
TinyNisha
48% · 398 games62% · 13 games
Outworld DestroyerXm
Outworld Destroyer
Tidehunter
TidehunterAce
51% · 226 games48% · 167 games
Marcishiro
Marci
Largo
LargotOfu
51% · 113 games56% · 192 games
HoodwinkpLAnet
Hoodwink
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBoxi
43% · 175 games48% · 486 games
Jakiroy`
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct31:11
Team Liquid 68%Vici Gaming 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 39:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertamiCKe
51% · 158 games54% · 195 games
Shadow Fiendshiro
Shadow Fiend
Puck
PuckNisha
49% · 336 games44% · 199 games
SlardarXm
Slardar
Largo
LargoAce
45% · 58 games48% · 214 games
BatriderFaith_bian
Batrider
Marci
MarciBoxi
52% · 223 games57% · 61 game
Faceless VoidpLAnet
Faceless Void
Lion
LiontOfu
48% · 72 games52% · 178 games
Pugnay`
Pugna
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 81%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2