DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Liquid
Tusk
Boxi · 41 game
Pucksignature
Nisha · 29 games
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
Batridersignature
Boxi · 23 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 21 game
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 21 game
Xtreme Gaming
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 21 game
Warlock
xNova · 20 games
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 19 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 15 games
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
638 picks · 999 bans
Tusk
535 picks · 446 bans
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
449 picks · 487 bans
Shadow Demon
448 picks · 1049 bans
Warlock
442 picks · 279 bans
Mars
422 picks · 585 bans
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 518 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:8
Team Liquid 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazormiCKe
Faceless VoidAme
MarsAce
Primal BeastXxs
Void SpiritNisha
PuckNothingToSay
Shadow DemontOfu
Tuskfy
ClockwerkBoxi
WarlockxNova
Game 2prediction correct21:7
Team Liquid 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BristlebackmiCKe
KezAme
PuckNisha
TidehunterXxs
Centaur WarrunnerAce
Void SpiritNothingToSay
JakirotOfu
ChenxNova
Spirit BreakerBoxi
Windrangerfy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2