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DreamLeague Season 28 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Liquidwin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Liquid

Tusk
Tusk
Boxi · 41 game
59%
Puck
Pucksignature
Nisha · 29 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Boxi · 28 games
46%
Kez
Kezoften banned
miCKe · 24 games
54%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Boxi · 23 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Nisha · 23 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Ace · 21 game
76%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
miCKe · 21 game
62%

Xtreme Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
fy · 21 game
67%
Warlock
Warlock
xNova · 20 games
55%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Xxs · 19 games
74%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 18 games
50%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
Xxs · 16 games
88%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
xNova · 15 games
47%
Puck
Puckoften banned
NothingToSay · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
fy · 14 games
79%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
638 picks · 999 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
535 picks · 446 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
465 picks · 639 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
449 picks · 487 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
448 picks · 1049 bans
56%
Warlock
Warlock
442 picks · 279 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
422 picks · 585 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
419 picks · 518 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head5 – 0
Model total68% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:8
Team Liquid 60%Xtreme Gaming 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 34:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazormiCKe
48% · 119 games60% · 95 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Mars
MarsAce
48% · 460 games49% · 135 games
Primal BeastXxs
Primal Beast
Void Spirit
Void SpiritNisha
48% · 371 game52% · 495 games
PuckNothingToSay
Puck
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemontOfu
49% · 372 games51% · 447 games
Tuskfy
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkBoxi
47% · 194 games50% · 344 games
WarlockxNova
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct21:7
Team Liquid 61%Xtreme Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 25:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackmiCKe
56% · 163 games45% · 124 games
KezAme
Kez
Puck
PuckNisha
49% · 401 game51% · 317 games
TidehunterXxs
Tidehunter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerAce
50% · 312 games51% · 390 games
Void SpiritNothingToSay
Void Spirit
Jakiro
JakirotOfu
50% · 491 game54% · 292 games
ChenxNova
Chen
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerBoxi
44% · 71 game48% · 315 games
Windrangerfy
Windranger
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 68%
Series resultTeam Liquid 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2