Asgard Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxloss 1:2series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaters Arisewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 30 games
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 29 games
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 29 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 24 games
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 18 games
Techies
kreker · 17 games
Rune Eaters Arise
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ethereal · 5 games
Hoodwink
waveformn · 5 games
Marcioften banned
waveformn · 4 games
Largooften banned
Ankou · 3 games
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
Puckoften banned
Ethereal · 3 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
yowaai · 3 games
Tusk
waveformn · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
498 picks · 355 bans
Clockwerk
356 picks · 645 bans
Bane
346 picks · 392 bans
Rubick
334 picks · 188 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 451 bans
Tiny
316 picks · 343 bans
Windranger
301 picks · 231 bans
Storm Spirit
300 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Rune Eaters Arise
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Rune Eaters Arise
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:20
Team Lynx 49%Rune Eaters Arise 51%
The model gave 51% on Rune Eaters Arise — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 37:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Lunayowaai
Earth Spiritmellojul
Centaur WarrunnerAnkou
Undyingkreker
PuckEthereal
Dark WillowQBFY
Hoodwinkxsvampire
67% · 65 games
Winter Wyvernani-san
Game 2prediction correct40:18
Team Lynx 51%Rune Eaters Arise 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TidehunterVladikTheHtiviy
Terrorbladeyowaai
Puckmellojul
LargoAnkou
Ancient Apparitionkreker
Void SpiritEthereal
TechiesQBFY
Dark Willowxsvampire
49% · 64 games
Winter Wyvernani-san
Game 3prediction missed39:46
Team Lynx 51%Rune Eaters Arise 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Rune Eaters Arise in 47:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark SeerVladikTheHtiviy
Anti-Mageyowaai
Sand Kingmellojul
Keeper of the LightEthereal
TechiesQBFY
LargoAnkou
Ancient Apparitionkreker
Enchantressani-san
53% · 231 game
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters Arise · 50%
Series resultRune Eaters Arise 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3