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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VP.Prodigyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Lynx

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 27 games
63%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 18 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 15 games
60%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
60%
Sand King
Sand King
mellojul · 14 games
36%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
46%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 12 games
58%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 25 games
72%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
39%
Sand King
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
47%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 13 games
54%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 12 games
83%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 12 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
590 picks · 872 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
499 picks · 528 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
453 picks · 410 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
435 picks · 300 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 1033 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 670 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 578 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
371 picks · 552 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Team Lynx
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:33
Team Lynx 56%VP.Prodigy 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassin7jesu
46% · 154 games46% · 120 games
Muertacutie
Muerta
Leshrac
Leshracmellojul
52% · 124 games45% · 75 games
Largotakizawa
Largo
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
46% · 112 games51% · 104 games
Sand KingKatsura
Sand King
Lion
LionQBFY
52% · 58 games58% · 38 games
Ogre MagiJANTER
Ogre Magi
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorkreker
59% · 55 games50% · 166 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction correct25:13
Team Lynx 58%VP.Prodigy 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
48% · 249 games52% · 115 games
Kezcutie
Kez
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
52% · 169 games47% · 100 games
RubickKatsura
Rubick
Tiny
Tinymellojul
46% · 450 games52% · 270 games
Tidehuntertakizawa
Tidehunter
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
46% · 199 games55% · 480 games
Shadow Shamanraregods
Shadow Shaman
Tusk
Tuskkreker
48% · 414 games53% · 516 games
WarlockJANTER
Warlock
Game 3prediction correct45:13
Team Lynx 55%VP.Prodigy 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter7jesu
49% · 406 games50% · 480 games
Beastmastercutie
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
47% · 192 games52% · 347 games
Timbersawtakizawa
Timbersaw
Tiny
Tinymellojul
45% · 509 games53% · 144 games
InvokerKatsura
Invoker
Jakiro
Jakirokreker
49% · 668 games54% · 514 games
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Dark Willow
Dark WillowQBFY
47% · 249 games56% · 539 games
Ringmasterraregods
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 62%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3