CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Centaur Warrunnersignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 27 games
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 18 games
Gyrocoptersignature
7jesu · 15 games
Ringmastersignature
QBFY · 15 games
Sand King
mellojul · 14 games
Slardaroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Ursaoften banned
7jesu · 12 games
VP.Prodigy
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 25 games
Ringmaster
raregods · 18 games
Sand King
Katsura · 17 games
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 13 games
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 12 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 12 games
Tinyoften banned
raregods · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
590 picks · 872 bans
Tiny
499 picks · 528 bans
Tusk
453 picks · 410 bans
Warlock
435 picks · 300 bans
Shadow Demon
404 picks · 1033 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 670 bans
Mars
381 picks · 578 bans
Centaur Warrunner
371 picks · 552 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 49%
Hero pool strength51% Team Lynx
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total62% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:33
Team Lynx 56%VP.Prodigy 44%
The model gave 56% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin7jesu
Muertacutie
Leshracmellojul
Largotakizawa
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Sand KingKatsura
LionQBFY
Ogre MagiJANTER
Treant Protectorkreker
Ringmasterraregods
Game 2prediction correct25:13
Team Lynx 58%VP.Prodigy 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 29:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter7jesu
Kezcutie
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
RubickKatsura
Tinymellojul
Tidehuntertakizawa
Dark WillowQBFY
Shadow Shamanraregods
Tuskkreker
WarlockJANTER
Game 3prediction correct45:13
Team Lynx 55%VP.Prodigy 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter7jesu
Beastmastercutie
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Timbersawtakizawa
Tinymellojul
InvokerKatsura
Jakirokreker
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Dark WillowQBFY
Ringmasterraregods
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 62%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3