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DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
REKONIXwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Nemesis

Batrider
Batridersignature
Jing · 6 games
67%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Raven · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tiny
Akashi · 5 games
60%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 4 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Raven · 4 games
0%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 4 games
100%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jing · 4 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 3 games
100%

REKONIX

Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 3 games
67%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
Varizh · 2 games
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dalul · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
dalul · 2 games
100%
Bane
Bane
Varizh · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Varizh · 1 game
0%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
292 picks · 712 bans
51%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
261 picks · 245 bans
46%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 665 bans
49%
Pugna
Pugna
249 picks · 264 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
248 picks · 250 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
245 picks · 645 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
243 picks · 103 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 78%
Hero pool strength51% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:32
Team Nemesis 46%REKONIX 54%
The model gave 54% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingAkashi
59% · 209 games42% · 185 games
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
Queen of Pain
Enigma
EnigmaRaven
54% · 76 games48% · 28 games
Troll WarlordTraVins
Troll Warlord
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMac
53% · 212 games41% · 150 games
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Centaur Warrunner
Naga Siren
Naga SirenPonyo
56% · 118 games47% · 225 games
Ember Spiritdalul
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJing
50% · 98 games51% · 125 games
SilencerVarizh
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct
Team Nemesis 45%REKONIX 55%
The model gave 55% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX.
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 55%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2