DreamLeague Season 27. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Batridersignature
Jing · 6 games
Doomoften banned
Raven · 5 games
Tiny
Akashi · 5 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Raven · 4 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Raven · 4 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 4 games
Snapfire
Jing · 4 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 3 games
REKONIX
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 3 games
Ancient Apparition
Varizh · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
inYourdreaM · 2 games
Hoodwink
dalul · 2 games
Lion
dalul · 2 games
Bane
Varizh · 1 game
Disruptor
Varizh · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
TraVins · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
292 picks · 712 bans
Shadow Shaman
276 picks · 177 bans
Disruptor
261 picks · 245 bans
Dawnbreaker
256 picks · 665 bans
Pugna
249 picks · 264 bans
Tusk
248 picks · 250 bans
Marci
245 picks · 645 bans
Dark Willow
243 picks · 103 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 78%
Hero pool strength51% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:32
Team Nemesis 46%REKONIX 54%
The model gave 54% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 40:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingAkashi
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
EnigmaRaven
Troll WarlordTraVins
Dragon KnightMac
Centaur WarrunnerFbz
Naga SirenPonyo
Ember Spiritdalul
HoodwinkJing
SilencerVarizh
Game 2prediction correct
Team Nemesis 45%REKONIX 55%
The model gave 55% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX.
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 55%
Series resultREKONIX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2