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EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Publicloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Public

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 16 games
44%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mrls · 15 games
40%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
mrls · 10 games
60%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 8 games
75%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
mrls · 8 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
50%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Shad · 8 games
63%

Yellow Submarine

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 28 games
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
48%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 24 games
33%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 24 games
63%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 23 games
43%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 22 games
64%
Tusk
Tusk
prblms · 22 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
551 picks · 907 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
527 picks · 401 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 651 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
479 picks · 611 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 868 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 606 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
360 picks · 499 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
358 picks · 213 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Team Public
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Public
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:8
Team Public 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Public in 56:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYuragi
50% · 340 games49% · 418 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Puck
Puckerase
40% · 235 games55% · 246 games
Muertabottega
Muerta
Tidehunter
TidehunterAntares
46% · 207 games55% · 450 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
44% · 212 games63% · 58 games
Treant ProtectorHtrd
Treant Protector
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkmrls
42% · 196 games68% · 18 games
Largoprblms
Largo
Game 2prediction correct32:45
Team Public 48%Yellow Submarine 52%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 56:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzYuragi
54% · 49 games57% · 271 game
Muertabottega
Muerta
Puck
Puckerase
47% · 269 games52% · 79 games
ViperMirele
Viper
Largo
LargoAntares
48% · 18 games48% · 380 games
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Centaur Warrunner
Jakiro
Jakiromrls
44% · 493 games48% · 427 games
Ringmasterprblms
Ringmaster
Tusk
Tusksayuw
42% · 393 games67% · 65 games
Treant ProtectorHtrd
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction missed12:37
Team Public 51%Yellow Submarine 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Public — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
53% · 213 games48% · 315 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Viper
Vipererase
52% · 69 games45% · 221 game
Windrangerbottega
Windranger
Doom
DoomAntares
55% · 159 games39% · 109 games
UnderlordInfernal
Underlord
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsayuw
58% · 54 games53% · 100 games
Keeper of the Lightprblms
Keeper of the Light
Jakiro
Jakiromrls
50% · 575 games49% · 325 games
RingmasterHtrd
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Public · 51%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3