EPL Championship Season 1 · BO3
result vs predictionTPTeam Publicloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Public
Dragon Knightoften banned
Adzantick · 16 games
Hoodwink
mrls · 15 games
Skywrath Magesignature
mrls · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jeezy · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
mrls · 8 games
Timbersawoften banned
mangekyou · 8 games
Weaversignature
Shad · 8 games
Yellow Submarine
Ember Spiritsignature
Mirele · 28 games
Void Spirit
Mirele · 26 games
Snapfire
mrls · 25 games
Disruptor
Xakoda · 24 games
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 24 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 23 games
Muertasignature
bottega · 22 games
Tusk
prblms · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
551 picks · 907 bans
Tusk
527 picks · 401 bans
Dragon Knight
482 picks · 651 bans
Centaur Warrunner
479 picks · 611 bans
Shadow Demon
410 picks · 868 bans
Ember Spirit
375 picks · 606 bans
Mars
360 picks · 499 bans
Warlock
358 picks · 213 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Team Public
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Team Public
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:8
Team Public 46%Yellow Submarine 54%
The model gave 54% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Public in 56:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYuragi
Storm SpiritMirele
Puckerase
Muertabottega
TidehunterAntares
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Shadow Demonsayuw
Treant ProtectorHtrd
Hoodwinkmrls
Largoprblms
Game 2prediction correct32:45
Team Public 48%Yellow Submarine 52%
The model gave 52% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 56:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ClinkzYuragi
Muertabottega
Puckerase
ViperMirele
LargoAntares
Centaur WarrunnerInfernal
Jakiromrls
Ringmasterprblms
Tusksayuw
Treant ProtectorHtrd
Game 3prediction missed12:37
Team Public 51%Yellow Submarine 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Public — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaYuragi
Storm SpiritMirele
Vipererase
Windrangerbottega
DoomAntares
UnderlordInfernal
Nyx Assassinsayuw
Keeper of the Lightprblms
Jakiromrls
RingmasterHtrd
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Public · 51%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3