CIS Battle 3 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 2 games
Treant Protector
kyford · 2 games
Venomancer
86 · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 1 game
Broodmother
rubikon155 · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
SunshineRR · 1 game
Dark Willow
Aidar · 1 game
Dawnbreakeroften banned
SunshineRR · 1 game
Level UP
Dragon Knightoften banned
MaTson · 20 games
Batridersignature
Atoufix · 14 games
Ringmaster
Atoufix · 14 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
krol9ash · 13 games
Queen of Painoften banned
MaTson · 13 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
rubikon155 · 13 games
Tiny
Atoufix · 11 games
Medusasignature
rubikon155 · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
687 picks · 329 bans
Disruptor
561 picks · 602 bans
Hoodwink
463 picks · 238 bans
Mars
387 picks · 663 bans
Puck
384 picks · 1122 bans
Tusk
379 picks · 249 bans
Dragon Knight
350 picks · 354 bans
Warlock
337 picks · 152 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:16
Team Spirit Academy 37%Level UP 63%
The model gave 63% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 37:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusarubikon155
AbaddonNikobaby
MarciSunshineRR
Centaur WarrunnerpJonn
Earthshaker86
SlardarMaTson
Enchantresskyford
Skywrath MageGilgir
Dark WillowAidar
Pugnakur0patbI4
Game 2prediction missed27:13
Team Spirit Academy 36%Level UP 64%
The model gave 64% on Level UP — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 35:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusarubikon155
Dragon KnightMaTson
Ember Spirit86
SlarkNikobaby
VisageSunshineRR
TimbersawpJonn
Pugnakyford
Chenkur0patbI4
Witch DoctorAidar
GrimstrokeGilgir
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2