FISSURE Universe: Episode 4 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Muertasignature
rue · 31 game
Hoodwinksignature
rue · 28 games
Tinysignature
Larl · 28 games
Tusk
Miposhka · 26 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Satanic · 24 games
Batridersignature
rue · 23 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Larl · 23 games
Clockwerksignature
Miposhka · 22 games
BETBOOM TEAM
Muertasignature
Save- · 36 games
Beastmastersignature
MieRo · 28 games
Batridersignature
Save- · 26 games
Tusk
Kataomi · 26 games
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 22 games
Magnussignature
MieRo · 21 game
Monkey Kingsignature
kiyotaka · 21 game
Dawnbreakersignature
MieRo · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
504 picks · 692 bans
Phoenix
428 picks · 693 bans
Muerta
416 picks · 305 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 400 bans
Bristleback
370 picks · 853 bans
Magnus
369 picks · 971 bans
Phantom Assassin
365 picks · 610 bans
Pangolier
360 picks · 499 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% BETBOOM TEAM
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total70% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed32:33
Team Spirit 62%BETBOOM TEAM 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 59:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
DazzleLarl
Phantom AssassinPure~
TinyYatoro
Outworld DestroyergpK~
Sand KingCollapse
MuertaSave-
Bounty Hunterrue
Night StalkerMieRo
JakiroMiposhka
TinkerKataomi
Game 2prediction missed22:32
Team Spirit 59%BETBOOM TEAM 41%
The model gave 59% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by BETBOOM TEAM in 1:05:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightYatoro
Monkey KingPure~
AbaddonCollapse
TinygpK~
Outworld DestroyerLarl
Dark SeerMieRo
Muertarue
Crystal MaidenKataomi
JakiroMiposhka
Keeper of the LightSave-
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 70%
Series resultBETBOOM TEAM 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2