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The International 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Xtreme Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
rue · 40 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Collapse · 21 game
52%
Puck
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
67%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
rue · 18 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Panto · 17 games
35%
Rubick
Rubick
not me · 17 games
59%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yatoro · 17 games
65%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Collapse · 16 games
63%

Xtreme Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 34 games
62%
Phoenix
Phoenix
xNova · 32 games
44%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
45%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 19 games
53%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Ame · 18 games
56%
Kez
Kezoften banned
Ame · 18 games
39%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 18 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
fy · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
508 picks · 354 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
358 picks · 636 bans
52%
Bane
Bane
351 picks · 408 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 463 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
326 picks · 177 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
315 picks · 347 bans
50%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
303 picks · 583 bans
51%
Windranger
Windranger
303 picks · 228 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 34%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:26
Team Spirit 64%Xtreme Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
45% · 34 games46% · 30 games
SpectreAme
Spectre
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLarl
54% · 87 games38% · 10 games
TinkerNothingToSay
Tinker
Night Stalker
Night StalkerCollapse
46% · 19 games53% · 79 games
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Seer
Dark Willow
Dark Willownot me
36% · 78 games58% · 58 games
Spirit Breakerfy
Spirit Breaker
Undying
Undyingrue
45% · 53 games62% · 94 games
Winter WyvernxNova
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction correct25:27
Team Spirit 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerYatoro
43% · 68 games57% · 32 games
Phantom LancerAme
Phantom Lancer
Underlord
UnderlordCollapse
50% · 166 games53% · 286 games
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
Ember Spirit
Io
IoLarl
47% · 37 games46% · 126 games
DawnbreakerXxs
Dawnbreaker
Rubick
Rubicknot me
48% · 208 games53% · 131 game
Dark Willowfy
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
Clockwerkrue
47% · 175 games58% · 79 games
Winter WyvernxNova
Winter Wyvern
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2