The International 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Hoodwink
rue · 40 games
Pangolieroften banned
Collapse · 21 game
Pucksignature
Larl · 18 games
Ringmastersignature
rue · 18 games
Phoenix
Panto · 17 games
Rubick
not me · 17 games
Tinysignature
Yatoro · 17 games
Batridersignature
Collapse · 16 games
Xtreme Gaming
Hoodwinksignature
fy · 34 games
Phoenix
xNova · 32 games
Marsoften banned
Xxs · 20 games
Tinyoften banned
Ame · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Ame · 18 games
Kezoften banned
Ame · 18 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 18 games
Rubick
fy · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
508 picks · 354 bans
Clockwerk
358 picks · 636 bans
Bane
351 picks · 408 bans
Ember Spirit
327 picks · 463 bans
Rubick
326 picks · 177 bans
Tiny
315 picks · 347 bans
Shadow Fiend
303 picks · 583 bans
Windranger
303 picks · 228 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 34%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head4 – 5
Model total76% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct48:26
Team Spirit 64%Xtreme Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYatoro
SpectreAme
Storm SpiritLarl
TinkerNothingToSay
Night StalkerCollapse
Dark SeerXxs
Dark Willownot me
Spirit Breakerfy
Undyingrue
Winter WyvernxNova
Game 2prediction correct25:27
Team Spirit 65%Xtreme Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 48:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerYatoro
Phantom LancerAme
UnderlordCollapse
Ember SpiritNothingToSay
IoLarl
DawnbreakerXxs
Rubicknot me
Dark Willowfy
Clockwerkrue
Winter WyvernxNova
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 76%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2