European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Tickles
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 12 games
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 8 games
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 8 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 7 games
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 7 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dukalis · 6 games
Dark Seersignature
Force · 6 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 14 games
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 14 games
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
Magnussignature
pma · 12 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
Marcisignature
Daze · 11 games
Dragon Knight
Niku · 10 games
Pugnasignature
Riddys · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
267 picks · 350 bans
Dark Willow
239 picks · 113 bans
Treant Protector
222 picks · 478 bans
Phoenix
207 picks · 308 bans
Muerta
203 picks · 305 bans
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 411 bans
Vengeful Spirit
195 picks · 191 bans
Pangolier
192 picks · 359 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tickles
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total81% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:28
Team Tickles 68%Natus Vincere Junior 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 44:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingForce
Naga Sirengotthejuice
RazorUlnit
PuckNiku
TinyLorenof
Tidehunterpma
WeaverNARMAN
PugnaDaze
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
GrimstrokeRiddys
Game 2prediction missed17:35
Team Tickles 67%Natus Vincere Junior 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 54:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaUlnit
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
InvokerLorenof
Magnuspma
Centaur WarrunnerForce
Ogre MagiNiku
ChenDukalis
Dark WillowDaze
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
GrimstrokeRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2