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European Pro League Season 14 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Ticklesloss 0:2
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincere Juniorwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Dukalis · 12 games
83%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
NARMAN · 9 games
78%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Adzantick · 8 games
75%
Kunkka
Kunkkasignature
Lorenof · 8 games
75%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetsignature
Dukalis · 7 games
71%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinsignature
Shad · 7 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dukalis · 6 games
67%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 6 games
83%

Natus Vincere Junior

Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Riddys · 14 games
71%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
toshiyb · 14 games
50%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
pma · 14 games
64%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 12 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 11 games
45%
Marci
Marcisignature
Daze · 11 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Niku · 10 games
20%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Riddys · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
267 picks · 350 bans
53%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
239 picks · 113 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
222 picks · 478 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
207 picks · 308 bans
45%
Muerta
Muerta
203 picks · 305 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
197 picks · 411 bans
59%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
195 picks · 191 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
192 picks · 359 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 41%
Hero pool strength59% Team Tickles
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total81% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:28
Team Tickles 68%Natus Vincere Junior 32%
The model gave 68% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 44:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingForce
46% · 62 games53% · 90 games
Naga Sirengotthejuice
Naga Siren
Razor
RazorUlnit
55% · 55 games54% · 106 games
PuckNiku
Puck
Tiny
TinyLorenof
51% · 159 games45% · 74 games
Tidehunterpma
Tidehunter
Weaver
WeaverNARMAN
44% · 68 games53% · 75 games
PugnaDaze
Pugna
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionDukalis
47% · 75 games51% · 74 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed17:35
Team Tickles 67%Natus Vincere Junior 33%
The model gave 67% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 54:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaUlnit
48% · 57 games46% · 66 games
Faceless Voidgotthejuice
Faceless Void
Invoker
InvokerLorenof
56% · 85 games43% · 55 games
Magnuspma
Magnus
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerForce
45% · 66 games57% · 3 games
Ogre MagiNiku
Ogre Magi
Chen
ChenDukalis
65% · 29 games46% · 104 games
Dark WillowDaze
Dark Willow
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
53% · 100 games54% · 109 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 81%
Series resultNatus Vincere Junior 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2