CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO2
result vs predictionseries probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Yandex
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
Warlock
Solo · 10 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 8 games
Dark Willow
prblms · 6 games
Dazzleoften banned
Noticed · 6 games
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 6 games
Shadow Shamanoften banned
prblms · 6 games
Bane
prblms · 5 games
Zero Tenacity
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
Warlock
LeBronDota · 20 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 19 games
Ringmaster
Pablo · 19 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
574 picks · 590 bans
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 424 bans
Tiny
355 picks · 361 bans
Pangolier
336 picks · 508 bans
Terrorblade
326 picks · 691 bans
Puck
322 picks · 856 bans
Nature's Prophet
305 picks · 625 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:22
Team Yandex 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverTA2000
MeepoNande
Dawnbreakerififall
BeastmasterNefrit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
LeshracMirage
Warlockaik
EnchantressSe
Shadow Shamanprblms
Tuskyamich
Game 2prediction missed34:33
Team Yandex 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 53:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTA2000
AbaddonNefrit
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
GyrocopterNande
Dawnbreakerififall
LeshracMirage
Disruptorprblms
WarlockSe
Undyingaik
Tuskyamich
Game 3prediction correct
Team Yandex 44%Zero Tenacity 56%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3