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CCT Season 2 Series 4 · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Yandexloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Yandex

Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Chira JUNIOR · 10 games
40%
Warlock
Warlock
Solo · 10 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TA2000 · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
prblms · 6 games
33%
Dazzle
Dazzleoften banned
Noticed · 6 games
17%
Doom
Doomsignature
TA2000 · 6 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanoften banned
prblms · 6 games
50%
Bane
Bane
prblms · 5 games
40%

Zero Tenacity

Puck
Puckoften banned
Stojkov · 27 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 26 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Nefrit · 22 games
41%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Nande · 22 games
32%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pablo · 21 game
57%
Warlock
Warlock
LeBronDota · 20 games
45%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Retsu · 19 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Pablo · 19 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
574 picks · 590 bans
54%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
369 picks · 216 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
367 picks · 424 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
355 picks · 361 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
336 picks · 508 bans
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
326 picks · 691 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
322 picks · 856 bans
53%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
305 picks · 625 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 53%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Zero Tenacity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:22
Team Yandex 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 32:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverTA2000
45% · 80 games55% · 15 games
MeepoNande
Meepo
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerififall
46% · 232 games48% · 311 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritChira JUNIOR
52% · 243 games54% · 137 games
LeshracMirage
Leshrac
Warlock
Warlockaik
47% · 167 games52% · 119 games
EnchantressSe
Enchantress
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanprblms
53% · 212 games51% · 352 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 2prediction missed34:33
Team Yandex 46%Zero Tenacity 54%
The model gave 54% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Team Yandex in 53:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
44% · 332 games41% · 155 games
AbaddonNefrit
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightChira JUNIOR
53% · 293 games52% · 305 games
GyrocopterNande
Gyrocopter
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakerififall
45% · 245 games57% · 93 games
LeshracMirage
Leshrac
Disruptor
Disruptorprblms
52% · 68 games53% · 180 games
WarlockSe
Warlock
Undying
Undyingaik
53% · 129 games51% · 334 games
Tuskyamich
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct
Team Yandex 44%Zero Tenacity 56%
The model gave 56% on Zero Tenacity — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteZero Tenacity · 56%
Series resultZero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3