?
arrow_backBack to match
BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Thunder Awaken

Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 20 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Michael · 20 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 15 games
47%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
42%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Michael · 11 games
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
50%

Infinity Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 9 games
56%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 8 games
75%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Genek · 8 games
63%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 7 games
43%
Tusk
Tusk
Genek · 7 games
43%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
519 picks · 352 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
492 picks · 481 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
476 picks · 424 bans
49%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
364 picks · 424 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
350 picks · 342 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
311 picks · 160 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
280 picks · 689 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
271 picks · 176 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total69% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:34
Thunder Awaken 60%Infinity Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 1:03:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaSmiling Knight
50% · 160 games56% · 185 games
DoomDaaD-
Doom
Pangolier
PangolierILICH-
50% · 364 games55% · 190 games
LeshracLeostyle
Leshrac
Kunkka
KunkkaAlone
46% · 179 games49% · 179 games
TimbersawOscar
Timbersaw
Snapfire
SnapfireMichael
50% · 390 games49% · 617 games
TinyGenek
Tiny
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenAccel
46% · 190 games48% · 112 games
JakiroPrada
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct35:8
Thunder Awaken 61%Infinity Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 24:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherILICH-
47% · 78 games51% · 102 games
Shadow FiendLeostyle
Shadow Fiend
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAlone
52% · 87 games47% · 68 games
SlarkDaaD-
Slark
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
45% · 75 games58% · 127 games
EnigmaOscar
Enigma
Tiny
TinyMichael
48% · 330 games52% · 115 games
Nyx AssassinGenek
Nyx Assassin
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerAccel
61% · 23 games48% · 181 game
Treant ProtectorPrada
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 69%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2