BTS Pro Series Season 14: Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 20 games
Tinysignature
Michael · 20 games
Snapfire
Matthew · 15 games
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 12 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
Hoodwink
Michael · 11 games
Rubick
Michael · 11 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
DarkMago · 10 games
Infinity Esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 9 games
Snapfire
Jupiter · 9 games
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 7 games
Tusk
Genek · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Frank · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
519 picks · 352 bans
Tusk
492 picks · 481 bans
Tiny
476 picks · 424 bans
Treant Protector
364 picks · 424 bans
Mirana
350 picks · 342 bans
Snapfire
311 picks · 160 bans
Ember Spirit
280 picks · 689 bans
Clockwerk
271 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head5 – 1
Model total69% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct49:34
Thunder Awaken 60%Infinity Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 1:03:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaSmiling Knight
DoomDaaD-
PangolierILICH-
LeshracLeostyle
KunkkaAlone
TimbersawOscar
SnapfireMichael
TinyGenek
Crystal MaidenAccel
JakiroPrada
Game 2prediction correct35:8
Thunder Awaken 61%Infinity Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 24:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BroodmotherILICH-
Shadow FiendLeostyle
Keeper of the LightAlone
SlarkDaaD-
Drow RangerSmiling Knight
EnigmaOscar
TinyMichael
Nyx AssassinGenek
Spirit BreakerAccel
Treant ProtectorPrada
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 69%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2